- Thu Mar 13, 2025 11:21 am
#8033
Title: Unpacking the Home Run Mystery: What Drives a Pitcher's HR/9?
Hey Fast Ball Talks community,
I recently stumbled upon some fascinating insights regarding the often-overlooked statistic of HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings) and its implications for pitchers. As we dive deeper into the analytics of baseball, it seems that while we have a solid grasp on metrics like ERA and WHIP, HR/9 remains shrouded in mystery.
The data shows that home runs can be a bit of a wild card—sometimes a product of a pitcher's mistakes, but often influenced by factors beyond their control, like park dimensions or sheer luck. For instance, Chris Sale's astonishingly low HR/9 of 0.46 last season is likely unsustainable, while Carlos Rodon's elevated 1.59 raises eyebrows.
This leads me to wonder: how much weight do you put on HR/9 when evaluating a pitcher’s performance? Do you think it’s a reliable indicator of a pitcher's skill, or is it too random to be taken seriously?
Moreover, the analysis suggests that pitch type and location play crucial roles in determining HR/BBE (home runs per batted ball event). Breaking pitches tend to yield higher HR/BBE, while fastballs with more horizontal movement can help limit home runs. This raises another question: should pitchers focus on refining their pitch types to mitigate home runs, or is it more about location and execution?
As we gear up for the 2025 season, I’d love to hear your bold predictions. Are there any pitchers you think are primed for a breakout or a regression in their HR/9? And how do you approach drafting pitchers with concerning HR/9 stats?
Let’s get the conversation rolling! What are your thoughts on the home run problem in pitching?
Hey Fast Ball Talks community,
I recently stumbled upon some fascinating insights regarding the often-overlooked statistic of HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings) and its implications for pitchers. As we dive deeper into the analytics of baseball, it seems that while we have a solid grasp on metrics like ERA and WHIP, HR/9 remains shrouded in mystery.
The data shows that home runs can be a bit of a wild card—sometimes a product of a pitcher's mistakes, but often influenced by factors beyond their control, like park dimensions or sheer luck. For instance, Chris Sale's astonishingly low HR/9 of 0.46 last season is likely unsustainable, while Carlos Rodon's elevated 1.59 raises eyebrows.
This leads me to wonder: how much weight do you put on HR/9 when evaluating a pitcher’s performance? Do you think it’s a reliable indicator of a pitcher's skill, or is it too random to be taken seriously?
Moreover, the analysis suggests that pitch type and location play crucial roles in determining HR/BBE (home runs per batted ball event). Breaking pitches tend to yield higher HR/BBE, while fastballs with more horizontal movement can help limit home runs. This raises another question: should pitchers focus on refining their pitch types to mitigate home runs, or is it more about location and execution?
As we gear up for the 2025 season, I’d love to hear your bold predictions. Are there any pitchers you think are primed for a breakout or a regression in their HR/9? And how do you approach drafting pitchers with concerning HR/9 stats?
Let’s get the conversation rolling! What are your thoughts on the home run problem in pitching?