Braves Projections: Are We Overestimating the 2025 Season? Join the Debate! 

As we gear up for the 2025 season, the Atlanta Braves are once again at the center of attention with some bold projections and intriguing storylines. With the Depth Charts projections suggesting a 93-win season, it begs the question: are we underestimating the Braves' potential, or is this a classic case of overconfidence?

Let’s dive into some of the key players and projections that could shape the Braves' season. For instance, Grant Holmes is projected to have a 22.5% strikeout rate. Given his impressive swing-and-miss numbers, could he be the breakout star of the rotation? Or will the pressure of a full season in the starting role lead to a regression?

Then there's Marcell Ozuna, who has shown flashes of his former MVP-caliber self. With a projected wRC+ of 122, is it realistic to expect him to maintain this level of performance, or are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?

And what about Michael Harris II? With a projection of 5.0 WAR, he’s being touted as one of the top players in the league. But after a season marred by injuries and a decline in baserunning, can he truly bounce back to elite status?

The bullpen also raises eyebrows. Despite concerns about depth, projections rank them as a top-6 unit. Are we too quick to dismiss the potential of players like Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee?

Finally, let’s talk about the overall win total. With the Braves projected to finish with 93 wins, do you think they can surpass that mark? What factors could lead to either a breakout season or a disappointing finish?

Let’s hear your thoughts! What are your bold predictions for the Braves this season? Who do you think will exceed expectations, and who might fall short? Join the conversation and let’s discuss what the 2025 season holds for our beloved Braves!

Breakout Potential: Grant Holmes
Projected 22.5% K rate? That’s no joke. Holmes has that nasty stuff you want from a backend starter or swingman — good fastball movement, sharp breaking pitches, and now some MLB experience under his belt. The big question is: can he hold up over 150+ innings?
If he can command the zone better and cut down on walks, he could be the Braves' version of 2022 Spencer Strider — maybe not as dominant, but definitely impactful.

Prediction: He posts a sub-3.70 ERA and becomes a key midseason story.

Marcell Ozuna: Boom or Bust?
Projected wRC+ of 122 is optimistic... but not outlandish. Remember, he quietly had a strong second half in 2024, and when his bat heats up, he can still carry a lineup. His glove? Not ideal, but the DH role masks that.

Risk: He's streaky and age isn’t on his side — any prolonged slump or injury could tank that projection fast.

Prediction: Ends the year with 25+ HRs, but finishes closer to a 110 wRC+.

Michael Harris II: The X-Factor
A projected 5.0 WAR after an up-and-down 2024 is ambitious, but Harris has five-tool potential. If he can stay healthy and get back to being aggressive on the basepaths — where he’s absolutely electric — that WAR might not just be met, it might be exceeded.

Bounce-Back Watch: He’s healthy, stronger, and seems dialed in this spring. Don’t sleep on a 25/25 season.

Bullpen: Quiet Strength
Bummer and Dylan Lee could absolutely surprise. Bummer’s groundball rate is elite — if he finds his control, he could become a shutdown setup man. Dylan Lee, when healthy, is surgical — and he’s got the peripherals to back it up.

Pair that with Iglesias, Minter, and a possible emergence from guys like Daysbel Hernández, and this bullpen has the upside to be top-3, not just top-6.

93 Wins: Ceiling or Floor?
Honestly? It feels like the floor — if health holds up. This team is deep, balanced, and battle-tested. Here's the key:

If Strider, Fried, and Sale stay healthy:

If Acuña returns quickly and produces:

If the young arms like AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep make strides:

Bold Prediction: Braves finish with 97–100 wins and clinch the NL East with a few games to spare.

Who Exceeds Expectations?
Jarred Kelenic – change of scenery, lower pressure = breakout.

Ray Kerr – sneaky good reliever potential.

Luke Williams – might carve out a super-utility role.

Who Might Fall Short?
Ozuna, if the bat doesn’t stay hot.

Charlie Morton, if age finally catches up.

Orlando Arcia, if regression at the plate hits.